Overpopulation?? A great talk with Data Visualization

Watch this video, answer the questions raised by the speaker and see how knowledgeable you are about the global society.

The speaker has used many interesting data visualizations in this speech.

(Not Just A) U.S. problem: I work three part-time jobs

(5/19/2016) This is a common problem in the U.S. and in Taiwan (the country I came from). The low level of labor force is struggling to make their ends meet ( a news from CNN Money). "Part-time work has become a huge worry for experts who watch the U.S. economy. There are 6 million part-time workers who want full-time jobs. It's well above its pre-recession average of about 4 million workers."
      Definitely part of the problem is the greed of capitalists, but part of the problem is that the labor cannot catch up the change of business environments and technology. The speed of changes of technology and business environments is speeding up, like the phenomenon of global warming.
      The integration of computer, information technology, robots has replaced many jobs that are done by labors before. Decades ago, business needed many secretaries, typists, telephone operators, couriers (delivery documents in organizations, please watch the classic movie "Miracle on 34th Street"). Their jobs are way all gone. Now, even the jobs of white collar jobs, machine operators, skilled automobile workers, and delivery men (think about Amazon Drone), or maybe even professional photographer (watch this video) are at risk. The productivity growth from computer, IT and robots outpaces many labors of low ranks. People who have $$$ can invest on firms that provides solutions through computer, IT and robots and enjoy continuous good returns on investment (ROI); but labors who are ignorant of these changes are lagging further and further behind. This is a main cause of current income gap in many countries.
     Before the government can take any effective actions, what we (labors) can do is at least to update our skills and knowledges with technology. However, technology skills and knowledges is not enough. The integration of computer, IT and robots can do a much better, accurate, and faster job and our human brains. We have to be able to be independent thinkers, capable to make good judgements based on our skills and knowledges. At least, in a near future (say, 20 years???), the robots are still not capable to make judgement and think like human beings.

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/17/news/economy/job-multiple-part-time/

Will automated selfie stick replace some professional photographer's jobs?

Why A Vacation Home Town Doesn't Want to Be A Vacation Hometown?

(04/09/2016) It is a new about a seaside town in Cornwall is taking on the out-of-towners (those who buy vacation homes there)?
"On May 5th, when the town votes in a referendum on a number of local issues, tucked into the ballot will be a particularly controversial question: whether to make it a legal requirement that all new housing in the area must be for principal residences only. The town expects over 1,000 new homes to be built before 2030. If the measure passes, outsiders will still be able to buy existing properties as second homes, but not new ones."

Why a vacation home town is not good for the vacation home town? I visited a vacation Mecca of New England -- Provincetown, MA several times in the past 7 years. This is what I heard from people living there about the struggle of a vacation home town.
1. Housing prices skyrocketed, natives of the town cannot afford living there anymore.
2. Increase infrastructure spending for the local government, maintaining them is not cheap. Increased property tax does not offset this new spending.
3. Increase peak- and off-season, testing the livelihood of people supporting the town's economy. If you are a plumber, you will be very busy in the peak season, but not many jobs in the off season. How do you hire workers (they will be temporary migrants too because you don't need them in the off-season).
4. Increased rent, make local businesses less sustainable. With demand fluctuation of peak- and off seasons becomes more challenging to maintain business.

I do like the idea of this town -- Cornwall. Making people who buys the home there staying there, keep local economy going healthily all year around.

Provincetown, MA

Student Amazon Shipments Clog Dorm Mailroom?

(10/21/2015) It is a small news with a big implication: future generation's shopping habit is changing. Amazon provides free Prime membership to college students and it's working really well. Now the college dorms find it is overwhelmed by students Amazon online shipments (not just from Amazon, of course). It should be a serious warning sign for other brick-and-mortar retail stores. If Walmart, Target and BestBuy don't improve their online shopping environments and experience, they may not be relevant in the future.

Fortune Evaporation May Kill Nicaragua Canal

(10/02/2015) Do you remember that Japanese bought Rockefeller Center in NYC in 1990? Many American thought then Japanese would take over USA then. This is another example of free-fall. The Nicaragua Canal maybe just a mirage reflecting from this Chinese tycoon's dream.

Germany's Austerity Obsession Could Take Down The Global Economy?

(10/13/2014) This is a news about Germany's recent recession. Did Germany dig into this current problem by pushing austerity in other debt-laden countries in Europe?

Let me try to derive the causal relationship:
EU pushed austerity in countries with huge national debt to stabilize EURO and european's economy --> Countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal cut spendings --> Those debt-laden countries above don't buy equipments or other imports from Germany (since Germany is the behemoth of exporting) --> Germany economy fell into recession.

But will other options to cope with European debt issue work better?

Franchise Owner's Dream

(3/7/2014) Recently, several cities raised their minimal wages to improve the workers of low-skill jobs. Business like McDonald, Berger King, Papa Johns or UPS local store... are against raising minimal wages and say their franchises will be forced to raise the price. What they said might be true because many franchises are running in a very thin margin. This article has a very good analysis about Franchise business and the lives of being franchise.

A quote from this article "Franchisees don’t enjoy the market powers and economies of scale of their parent companies. Rather, they run small businesses with narrow profit margins, high failure rates, and plenty of anti-corporate grievances of their own. Anyone who wants to help immiserated fast-food workers, in other words, also needs to spare a few thoughts for their immiserated bosses."

Chris Christie's Prisoner's Dilemma

(1/31/2014) The GWB closure scandal has been surfaces for a month, we all know it smells very fishy. It just needs time waiting for the evidence to show that Christie was involved, or at least not as "unaware" as he claimed. Now the new evidence just come up: “Mr. Wildstein (a high school friend of Mr. Christie’s who was appointed with the governor’s blessing at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey) contests the accuracy of various statements that the governor made about him, and he can prove the inaccuracy of some,...”.

Christie's GWB closure will be one of greatest example of Prisoner's dilemma (囚犯困境，a famous economic game theory) in the future.

Step 1 to make prisoner's dilemma: let them don't trust each other, and betrayal will prevail. (讓囚犯陷入困境的第一步：讓囚犯們彼此猜疑對方的背叛！)

One of the prisoners in Christie's GWB scandal: Mr. David Wildstein. 

Bitcoin Crashing

(12/18/2013) After Chinese government officially challenged the validity of Bitcoin, the value of Bitcoin continued to drop further. Today (12/18/2013), the Bitcoin dropped 17% when "the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has ordered third-party payment providers to stop using the virtual currency." Without a trusted central financial institution (like US Federal government), the users of Bitcoin have to transact on a software follows Bitcoin Protocol. "Users send payments by broadcasting digitally signed messages that transfer ownership of bitcoins, the unit of currency." I never have trust on Bitcoin, and even doubt its function to be used as a transaction currency. Look at the historical value of Bitcoin, if its value fluctuates so dramatically, how can it be used as a currency? Bitcoin itself has become a speculation commodity like gold or oil. When an influential player (like China) challenges its validity, it crashes. It eventually proves to be just a bubble.

Bitcoin historical price accessed on 12/18/2013

Bitcoin price on 12/18/2013.

(3/5/2014) Not only Bitcoin's volatility is a concern, it's safety just damaging the currency's credibility even further. One week ago, the world's biggest bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox,  filed bankruptcy as nearly half a billion dollars worth of bitcoins were stolen due to computer hacks. Today, another bitcoin exchange, flexcoin.com, is shut down due to another hack and a loss of around $600 K worth of currency. The Japanese government now considers a regulation "adding that banks and securities firms will not be able to handle bitcoin as part of their main business, suggesting the crypto-currency will be treated more as a commodity, like gold." It may means the day that bitcoin survives as a currency is soon to be over.

Your Dream House Maybe Better Comes Later

(11/1/2013) Owning your dream house is a recent American dream, which also triggered the housing bubbles mid 2000's. After the biggest recession in 2008, the US employment situation grew very slowly even though the overall recovery is good.  The national average unemployment rate in the US is still around 7.2% now. People call it "jobless recovery." What is the cause of low-job growth in the economic recovery after 2008? One of the reasons maybe the higher house ownership. Based on this study of economics professor Andrew Oswald from Warwick University, the states with higher house ownership is significantly related to their higher unemployment (their research covered some European countries too). The reason: the labor mobility drops because the labor prefers a job near the house. It may sound ironic at first, but it is pretty reasonable. The global economy now just changes so fast. A booming industry in a city may move to another state in 5-10 years. The employees who buy houses during the booming years face a big change in the job market once several business employers move somewhere. Then they are stuck.

Your dream house maybe better comes later.

The Odds of Winning Powerball lottery

(9/17/2013) I love this article - when is the best time to buy lottery. But do we follow its advice? Or most lottery buyers simply believe they will win one day? If you don't have time to read the whole article, here is the conclusion:

1. The expected value for the cash-up front Powerball winnings is always negative. It will never make sense to take the money up front, whether you believe the linear model or the polynomial model. 
2.  The expected value for the annuity, however, is break-even when the jackpot exceeds $345 million in the linear participation model and $380 million in the polynomial model. Since the polynomial model seems more accurate at higher jackpots, go with that one. 
3.  Taxes will probably mean that it is never profitable or sensible to play the lottery. So if you do play, try to minimize them. 

This calculation is only part of all analysis needed. The article has more complete analysis.

Lobster Oversupply Hurts Maine Fishermen

(9/1/2013) Similar to many other examples (e.g., Taiwanese eggplant farmer's dilemma), the demand of food cannot easily to counter oversupply or undersupply. The plentiful lobster in the US northeast coast leaves not much profit for the lobster fishermen in Maine. Right now, "lobster off the boat is selling for as low as $2.20 a pound." Short shelf life and expensive logistics cost to ship lobster cannot do much to ship lobsters in Maine to other markets. (My Taiwanese friends will be very envy of me living here though I don't eat lobster much at all.)

(10/20/2013) More 21 century lobster war updates between Canada and Maine lobstermen. The price of Lobster is as low as $1.20 per pound now, but do you, as a consumer, see the price drop in the supermarket? Probably not for those far away from New England. . No wonder the fishermen were wondering "If the consumer wasn’t paying the big dollars, I’d say: it’s O.K., it’s fair. One billion dollars changes hands in the Atlantic Canada lobster fishery and somebody’s getting the money."

The Contribution of A Black Market

(8/30/2013) I came cross with this interesting article about black market and global economy. It reminds me of some business activities in Asia and how it ran and operated when I grew up. When a market has a demand for something but it is inconvenient for consumers to get it (cigarettes, alcohols, drugs, prostitutions, or even some luxury goods in some developing countries), the black market fills this gap. It bypasses the regulation and intervention of the government. In a black market, the consumers know where to find the supply and the suppliers will rush in when there is a business opportunity to profit from it. I wonder if a more open and free economy has a relative small black market? Is it better off to the whole society?

VA Will Punish Hybrid Vehicle Owners with New Tax

(2/21/2013) This is probably one of the most stupid proposals of transportation policy(Jones' Act too) in the United States. While scratching the transportation funding, the senate and the house of the Commonwealth of Virginia come up with a new tax: taxing $100 annually on the owners of hybrid vehicles. One possible reason, the hybrid vehicles use less fuels and pay less fuel tax to the states. Your must be kidding me.

Health Awareness Can Become Ecosystem's Disaster

(2/21/2013) Health awareness may trigger an ecosystem disaster in Bolivia. When people around the world start realizing the benefits of quinoa, it triggers price spikes on quinoa. So the farmers in Bolivia are rushing for planting more quinoa and skip rotations that is necessary for the fragile landscape in the Andes.

Delicious and healthy quinoa salad.

Farmer's Supply Chain In Taiwan

(2/20/2013) The increasing fuel price doubles down the overproduction of Asian eggplant in Taiwan. According to this report (in Chinese), the wholesale price of Asian eggplant in Taiwan at this moment is less than 8 cents per pound. One culprit is the warm weather that makes eggplant overgrow. The farmers have to let go the crops without harvesting because the fuel price is too high to ship from the farmland to the market (Taipei) and stay profitable. The unpredictable weather in Taiwan has been a big problem to farmers: The weather in Taiwan is subject to huge variation in heat, rain, typhoons and drought.

Source: http://udn.com/NEWS/FASHION/FASS16/7706429.shtml

Death Spiral? Chinese Car Obsession

(1/31/2013) China has overtaken U.S. as the largest car market. Owning a car is a symbol of social status in China even though driving in many cities in China is not a exciting experience at all. The traffic congestion in China is pretty well known (Look at this historical gridlock near Beijing in 2010). Recently, Beijing is experiencing severe smog for days. How bad was it? You cannot see the Sun in Beijing when you are in a sunny day (See CNN's report below). People say "The More The Air Is Polluted, The More I Prefer To Drive." Is it another new paradox smilar to Prisoner's dilemma or Paradox of thrift in the Economics?

Unlocking Your Phone? Not Allowed

(1/28/2013) Now, it is illegal to unlock your cell phone. The software coming with your cell phone is not what you bought and owned, it belongs to the wireless service provider.  As the report says "This is about carriers keeping people on their networks and squeezing the after-market for phone sales." They don't want the resale markets encroaching their profit. Let us mourn for the loss of consumers.

Wireless Service Provider and Lobbyists 1: Consumers 0 

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Economics of Gangnam Style

(1/23/2013) How much doe Gangnam Style bring to Youtube and PSY just on the online video along? According to an estimate, that video brings about $8 millions from that 1.2 billion view, in which one half goes to Youtube and the other half goes to PSY. No wonder PSY has such a big smile.

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China Devour Rice Around the World

(1/8/2013) If you cannot live without rice, you may notice that the price of rice is at its peak recently. China is importing rice, rigorously. If you were a business man and you can buy low (of rice) from other countries and sell hight to China and make profit, why won't you do that? This is the power of a 1.3 billion country: strong demand.